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Cyclical bull market has run

The dollar index from 2010 start at 8:00 on June 8 to enter a new round of devaluation, the global liquidity flood again, crude oil, gold, metals, agricultural products and other commodities once again bullish.Depreciation of U.S. dollar in the short term will round back to the 2008 financial crisis low of 70 points, there are still 10% of the depreciation of the space, as gold, copper and other nonferrous metals have risen back to the high point of the financial crisis, while the soybean, corn, wheat and other agricultural products from the financial crisis, there is the high point of 30% to 50% increase in space, and from long-term price chart of agricultural products observed three decades, agricultural prices have been 70 years since the break from the big box of three years, has now entered the stage .

The new box is running, such as corn, soybeans, wheat and soft commodities (sugar, cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice), fat (butter, cottonseed oil, lard, tallow), livestock (cattle, pigs, pigs belly), textiles (hemp, cotton, print cloth, wool). 1972-2007 New Year's Eve for many years, the corn price fluctuations in the 200-400 dollar range, beginning in 2007, corn prices have entered a new 400-800 dollar range, the global agricultural prices and agricultural products, consumer stocks may have access to more than 10 years long-term bull market, which marks the world economy has entered a long period of inflation.China has come to the peak demand of industrial resources, goods, this may mean that the metals industry, the stock's long-term cyclical bull market has run its course.

In urbanization, industrialization, the late products of industrial resources will give way to consumer goods, and perhaps the long-term bull market in stocks of agricultural products consumption has only just begun. The adjustment of economic structure, transform the economic growth mode is the "second five" important strategic planning, with the "five-second" period of national income distribution system reform, the majority of the income of low-income workers will be rapid increase in population, hundreds of millions of low-income labor groups clothing, housing and other consumption rise, is expected to "second Five-Year" period, China's final consumption rate of 48% from 2010 to 2010 increased 55% rate of final consumption in 2020 65% or so.

China's industrialization and urbanization, fast forward and the disappearance of the demographic dividend, resulting in "no way can be kind" and "no farming," the two situations simultaneously, showing a lack of arable land and labor, the low level of agricultural labor productivity constraints will manifest themselves through inflation. Depletion of agricultural labor dividend performance of the current workers engaged in agricultural production as farmers born in the fifties and sixties generation, most of TAIZHOU XUBO METAL PRODUCTS CO., LTD them have more than five years old age, coupled with the low level of knowledge and culture, and agriculture was born the eighties and nineties second generation, they are no longer willing to engage in agricultural production.

China's land area is hilly and the United States less plain contrary, a large number of arable land can not achieve large-scale mechanization of modern farming, and only a few big barn, such as the Yangtze River Plain, the Pearl River Delta, the fertile North China Plain, the Great Plains, etc. have been cover the world's factory and the CBD residential villas. China's agricultural output has been unable to support the population of 1.3 billion, 1.3 billion people in the consumer base of huge population, China in the next 10 years, agricultural prices and inflation will remain high, inflation pressure is very great.

The United States is the world's largest agricultural producer and exporter, the United States control the global economy has three magic weapons: U.S. dollar, pricing of crude oil and agricultural products, China became the world's factory, the United States will not easily give up the farm to earn the Chinese people wealth. Can be expected on the pricing of agricultural products in the future, Wall Street will be repeated manipulation of crude oil pricing over the past few years the scene, so China should advance against rising prices of agricultural products and the whole society for the long-term inflation.

+ نوشته شده در جمعه 13 فروردين 1400ساعت 6:40 توسط Basin Wastes Manufacturers | | تعداد بازدید : 7

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